National Democrats have downplayed any link between progressive policies and increased crime ahead of the November elections, but some local Democratic leaders have been going off message.
SO WHAT
The Democrats appear to be losing the blame game over crime, and it could cost them the 2022 elections.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING
From the White House to the California governor’s mansion, Democratic Party leaders have been downplaying the role of progressive policies in the nationwide crime surge — and trying to shift blame to the GOP.
But a number of Democratic city leaders have broken with the party line in recent months and blamed their crime problems on progressive reforms — like abolishing cash bail, not prosecuting some crimes and paroling prisoners early.
- What does the data say?: Marc Thiessen devoted his Washington Post column Wednesday to “The Red State Murder Problem,” a widely-cited March study by Democratic think tank Third Way.
- Drawing on research by the conservative Manhattan Institute, Thiessen concluded: “To argue, as Third Way does, that ‘murder rates are actually higher in Republican, Trump-voting states’ — without pointing out that those rates are driven by the slaughter taking place in Democratic-voting blue cities — is intentionally misleading.”
- According to various studies, abolishing cash bail resulted in more violent crime in New York City, San Francisco and Chicago, and “de-prosecution” resulted in 75 more murders per year in Philadelphia.
WHAT’S AT STAKE
Polling has suggested that most voters agree with the Democrats who blame their own side for the increase in crime.
- 64% of voters, including 52% of Democrats, say “woke politicians” are the main reason crime has gone up, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll conducted last week.
- 68% say the issue will be “very important” to how they vote in next terms midterm elections for Congress, per the poll.
Meanwhile, tough-on-crime Republican candidates have looked unusually competitive in “deep blue” states, including the governor’s races in Oregon and New York, renewing talk of a “red wave.”
- “[Portlanders] want to be safe in their own yards. They want to be safe when their kids walk to school,” GOP gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan said on Fox News last month, by way of explaining her dark horse campaign. “This is not partisan.”